When it comes to wondering where home prices are heading, it can get very confusing – you can ask anyone what they think these days and I’m sure you’ll hear different opinions.
Just like the experts in the news they have their different opinions, too. There’s just so much out there to hear and read. One expert may say prices are heading up, while the next expert says they are dropping.
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National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun addressed the issue at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Denver:
“This time next year, there could be a 10% price appreciation. I would not be surprised to see that.” Good news, right?
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At the same time, Gary Schilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., has been very outspoken about his belief that prices will continue to fall:
“Excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices…I’m looking for another 20% decline and that is what it would take to bring them back to the long-term averages.”
See the debate between him and housing bull Mark Kiesel of PIMCO. BOTH make great points: Economist Gary Shilling & Mark Kiesel Go Head-to-Head.
As per Trulia’s new housing barometer, it shows that real estate is starting to recover. Chief economist Jed Kolko looked at construction starts, existing home sales and the rate of delinquencies and foreclosures, then combined these indicators to create the barometer. Kolko says housing starts are a good indicator of homebuilder confidence, while the number of sales and the foreclosure rate illustrate consumers’ financial stability as well as their confidence level.
Another well respected source: The Case-Shiller home price index, compiled by Standard & Poor's and usually referred to as the S.&P./Case-Shiller index, tracks the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. (The methodology, developed by Karl E. Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, and Robert J. Shiller, an economics professor at Yale, collects data monthly on sales of existing single-family houses. The index is published on the last Tuesday of each month, with a two-month lag). Their latest report:
Case-Shiller Shows 2.2% Home Price Gain:
According to the May Case-Shiller Index home values rose 2.2% nationwide between April and May, the largest one-month jump in the Case-Shiller Index's history. Each of the index's 20 tracked housing markets posted monthly price gains and none posted new lows.
Also, according to Zillow: http://www.dsnews.com/articles/zillow-july-sees-more-home-value-gains-market-to-cool-in-fall-2012-08-21
Different “expert” opinions can really make a buyer or seller confused.
Look to your local professional realtor to help concentrate on your area of interest for answers. Consider these questions to ask: what’s currently on the market - what just recently sold – and possible foreclosures on the market and ready to hit the market – and, of course, keep well informed with your area news experts that you trust.
Taking steps towards your goals to get you (and your family) closer to where you need to be for a better future may take a lot of dedication and time, but it’ll be definitively worth it in the end.
